Legislative Update - August 25, 2023

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign may be struggling to gain traction, but Florida voters still think he’s doing a good job running the Sunshine State.

According to a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll, 51% of voters approve of the job DeSantis is doing as Governor, including 85% of Republicans and 59% of no-party voters. The second-term Republican also boasts strong support among Hispanic voters, 55% of whom say he’s doing a good job.

However, Floridians do not hold the man he hopes to replace in the Oval Office in high regard. The same voters were asked their views on President Joe Biden and 56% of voters said they disapproved of the job he’s doing in D.C.

While warm waters churn in the Atlantic Ocean as the hurricane season has entered what traditionally is its most-active period, most of the storm systems do not appear to pose an immediate threat to Florida.  However, there is a tropical disturbance forming off the Yucatan that has a chance of hitting Florida next week.  Gov. Ron DeSantis warned on X that Florida residents should keep an eye on a potential tropical system currently off the Gulf coast of Mexico that is moving north in the Gulf toward the northern Gulf or, possibly the west coast of Florida. "Residents should remain vigilant and prepare for possible impacts early next week," DeSantis said.DeSantis X Feed

Good thing we have one more Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday.

“Florida’s Disaster Sales Tax Holiday is back. Here’s what you need to know” via Christie Zizo of Click Orlando — Florida’s Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday is happening twice this year, and the second holiday period starts Saturday. The sales tax holiday exempts customers in Florida from paying taxes on specific supplies related to preparing for disasters. With the peak of hurricane season nearing, now is a good time to stock up on those items you might need if you didn’t do so during the last holiday period back in May. This is not the only sales tax holiday happening during this period. Florida is also hosting a Tool Time Sales Tax Holiday from Sept. 2 to Sept. 8.

Legislative …

After three years of delays, renovation on the Florida State Capitol has been completed. The front doors of the Capitol will reopen this fall, showcasing the multimillion-dollar redesign bringing the building into compliance with the Americans with Disability Act. The original plan was delayed due to structural issues in parking garages under the Senate and House buildings. Repairs to the garage required the removal of over 7,000 pounds of soil and 150 trees. The new Capitol flaunts a multi-tier plaza, ramps and elevators, which will be open to the public in the coming weeks. 

State Rep. Michelle Salzman, a Pensacola Republican, proposed a constitutional amendment to be considered in the next legislative session that would impose eight-year term limits on county commissioners, the News Service of Florida reports. 

“Joel Rudman says doctors shouldn’t be forced to sign noncompete clauses” via Christine Jordan Sexton of Florida Politics — Navarre physician and Rep. Rudman doesn’t generally support Biden’s policies. But Rudman, like Biden, wants to ban the use of noncompete clauses. While Biden wants to ban noncompete clauses for all workers, Rudman only wants to ban them in health care contracts, and only for medical doctors and osteopathic doctors. “I’m striking a blow for the doctors with this bill. We’re going to level the playing field for doctors, and we’re going to let physicians know that they are wanted in the state of Florida, and they don’t have to leave the state to build a successful practice,” Rudman told Florida Politics. To that end, Rudman filed HB 11 this week.

Florida gun buyers could get their firearms sooner under new legislation filed by Navarre Republican Rep. Joel Rudman. The bill (HB 17), filed ahead of the 2024 Legislative session set to begin in January, would allow the required waiting period to end after three days or upon the completion of the necessary background checks, whichever comes first. Currently, the state mandates a waiting period of three days, not counting weekends and holidays, for firearm purchases and ends either after three days or when the required background checks are completed, whichever comes later. 

Economists Project Continued GR Growth, But Smaller Surplus - Lawmakers should have a large budget surplus to work with as they craft the budget for the next fiscal year, though it isn't expected to have the same large piles of extra cash that allowed Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Legislature to put give lots of money back in tax cuts while still putting billions into road building and other programs over the last several years. Revenue estimators on Friday issued a new forecast showing an expected drop of 3.5% in overall tax collections in the current fiscal year because of those tax cuts and a slowing in spending. But more is expected to come in starting in the new fiscal year and revenue is expected to grow $3 billion more than originally anticipated between now and 2025. Politico / Revenue Estimating Conference Executive Summary / Revenue Estimating Conference GR Outlook Statement / LobbyTools Budget Materials

State tax projections get $2.77 billion bump - Economists added $2.77 billion to the state’s general-revenue tax projections for the current fiscal year and next fiscal year, giving lawmakers more money to play with when they start drawing up a budget. The economists, who serve as the state Revenue Estimating Conference, had included the prospect of a “mild” recession in a forecast earlier this year. But the panel now expects more stability in most economic areas as Florida moves beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. [Source: News Service of Florida]

Court to hear 'Stop WOKE' business fight - A federal appeals court this week will hear arguments in a fight about a 2022 Florida law that placed restrictions on how race-related issues can be addressed in workplace training — part of what Gov. Ron DeSantis dubbed the “Stop WOKE Act.” Attorneys for the state want the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to overturn a preliminary injunction that Chief U.S. District Judge Mark Walker issued last year to block the workplace-training part of the law. Walker agreed with businesses and a consultant that the restrictions violated the First Amendment. [Source: News Service of Florida]

Business …

Our Changing State: The economics of living in Florida now - Florida's economy has been labeled white hot, with a $1.4 trillion GDP and unemployment of 2.6%. That’s nearly a percentage point below the national unemployment rate. But our soaring economy may be leaving some Floridians behind. Inflation here is outpacing the rest of the country, and many residents struggle to afford housing and other necessities. And low unemployment means some businesses are finding it hard to staff up. [Source: WUSF]

Florida's Jobless Rate Increased in July, First Time This Year - The state Department of Commerce, formerly the Department of Economic Opportunity, reported late last week that Florida's unemployment rate increased slightly for the first time this year. It was 2.6% in June and rose to 2.7% for the month of July, but rates remain historically low, continuing a 33-month consecutive streak below the national rate and consistently ranking as the lowest among the ten largest states for fourteen months. The agency estimated 295,000 Floridians were out of work in mid-July, up 5,000 from a month earlier. The labor force grew by 2.6% statewide during July as the state's economy added 42,800 private sector jobs, the most significant increase since September 2022. In terms of industries, the education and health services sector experienced the highest job gains, adding 14,300 jobs, followed by professional and business services with 10,600 jobs, and trade, transportation and utilities with 5,100 jobs. "For the last four years, Florida has led the nation with more than 2.5 million new business formations and over 1 million Floridians joining the workforce," said Gov. Ron DeSantis. Currently, there are more than 545,000 online job postings in Florida. The national unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% in July, down from 3.6% in June. DeSantis Press Release / FloridaCommerce July Figures / Florida's Voice / News Service Florida / WCJB 

New laws aim to stabilize Florida's insurance market ahead of peak hurricane season - Last year, Hurricane Ian caused more than $16 billion in damage in South Florida. Lawmakers say the storm strained the state's insurance market beyond anything seen before. This year, the state passed three laws aimed at stabilizing the market and keeping insurance companies in business. Another major storm could threaten Florida's already fragile homeowner's insurance market. [Source: CBS]

Citizens Ordered to Reevaluate Property Insurance Rate Hike - The Office of Insurance Regulation wants state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corporation to reduce its proposed monthly rate hikes of 13.3% requested in June, with 12% hikes for residential property insurance policies. An order issued late last week by state Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky directs Citizens to "calculate new, reduced, overall average statewide rate increases for the rate filings." Friday's ruling orders Citizens to explain in detail how it determined competitive factors when drafting its proposed rate. It also tells Citizens to look at a range of increases for different parts of the state, rather than a statewide average. Citizens is the state's insurer of last resort and its rate increases are capped by law, but rates are supposed to be competitive in the insurance market. Additionally, rates could increase up to 50% for homes that are not primary residences under a law passed last year. Citizens had recently swelled to over 1.3 million policies, posing a financial risk to the state if a strong storm were to hit Florida. Citizens has 30 days to provide the information, with potential rate increases poised to take effect on Dec. 9. News Service Florida

When will they pay? Floridians say state not holding insurance carriers accountable post-Ian - Although Florida’s next hurricane season is well underway, many Floridians still haven’t recovered from the last one. They complain their carriers delay claim payments, lowball their customers or deny pay entirely. Consumers and their advocates say the state isn’t doing enough to help them –– that it’s soft on insurers and it’s soft on insurer crime. [Source: Sarasota Herald-Tribune]

Inflation waves keep sweeping South Florida economy amid post-pandemic rebound - Although regionally, workers have scored wage gains in a variety of industries such as the airlines and hospitality, the cost of daily living continues to pressure consumers in housing, energy, groceries, dining out, entertainment, and a variety of other services. Businesses, too, have felt the pressure as suppliers increase prices and skilled labor has been more costly. [Source: South Florida Sun-Sentinel]

AAA: Fla Gas Prices Dip Slightly After Reaching New 2023 High, Could Rise Again - Gas prices in Florida hit a 2023 high of $3.84 per gallon before slightly dropping over the weekend to an average of $3.81, according to AAA. Last year's price was 26 cents higher. Abrupt price changes are expected over the next two months due to tropical weather affecting refineries along the Gulf Coast. Despite being high, Florida's gas is cheaper than the national average of about $3.87 per gallon. The most expensive markets for gas include the West Palm-Boca Raton area, Naples and Gainesville, while the least expensive areas in the state are Pensacola, Panama City and the Crestview-Fort Walton Beach region in the Panhandle. AAA Press Release / Florida Politics / News Service Florida / Tallahassee Democrat / WCJB

› Tampa Bay added the most jobs in Florida this year, state says [WFLA] - The Tampa Bay area added the most private sector jobs out of any Florida metro area in the past year, according to new data from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. FloridaCommerce announced Friday that the Tampa Bay area’s labor force grew by 76,751 over the year in July 2023, up 4.6% from the previous year. The region saw its biggest gains in healthcare and education services jobs (21,000) and professional and business services jobs (14,300), outpacing other large metros like Miami and Orlando.

The recent increase of malaria cases in Florida has baffled experts, but they expect it to remain a localized event and not become a larger pandemic, Politico Florida reports. 

Elections …

“Fox News’ prime-time Republican debate snares 24 million viewers” via Brian Steinberg of Variety — The debate, moderated by Martha MacCallum and Bret Baier, won 7.9 million viewers between 25 and 54, the demographic most desired by advertisers in news programming. The debate, which generated attention beforehand as observers tried to determine which 10 members of a broad slate of candidates would be granted entrance to the prime-time event and which would be given time in a separate event held at 5 p.m., was also the highest-rated cable news program of all time and Fox News’ most-watched program ever in both total viewers and the 25-54 viewer demo.

Federal judges in Georgia and Texas have ruled against key provisions of election laws passed two years ago as the Republican Party sought to tighten voting rules. The rulings could have implications for similar laws passed in Florida, the Associated Press reports. 

Florida will square off with voting rights plaintiffs this week in a high-stakes redistricting battle that could have national implications as both sides argue over the constitutionality of protections for Black voters, the Times/Herald Tallahassee Bureau reports.

Is Voting Rights Act on trial in Florida? Redistricting case could have broad impact - The state of Florida will square off with voting-rights plaintiffs in Tallahassee this week in a high-stakes redistricting battle that could have national implications as both sides argue over the constitutionality of protections for Black voters. The one-day hearing on Thursday follows the state’s stark admission: Gov. Ron DeSantis’ congressional map violated the state’s safeguards against diminishing the electoral influence of racial minorities. DeSantis’ lawyers will argue those protections infringe upon the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment and should be thrown out. [Source: Miami Herald]

“Cigar magnate and former Florida House Speaker is new Ron DeSantis campaign adviser and surrogate” via Marc Caputo of The Messenger — Oliva, a co-founder of a successful Cuban exile family cigar business, is taking on a formal role with DeSantis’ campaign as a senior adviser and surrogate in both English and Spanish-language TV media. He will serve in his new public-facing role Wednesday in Milwaukee at the first Presidential Debate. “The niche I hope to fill is from the perspective of someone with firsthand experience of seeing how the Governor works — someone that was in the trenches with him, who got to see him operate and worked alongside him on very important legislation and policy,” Oliva told The Messenger. Oliva’s addition to the DeSantis team is part of a gradual Florida-focused rebuilding effort after a wave of layoffs to adjust the campaign’s finances and direction.

“Poll: DeSantis in single digits in GOP Primary race nationally” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — A new survey of the Republican presidential race finds DeSantis just below the 10% mark nationally. DeSantis has 9.7% support in the Insider Advantage poll, a number which shows the Governor continues to struggle nationally. Despite failing to clear the 10% mark, DeSantis is still in second place in this survey. Trump, with 50.6%, leads the field. Ramaswamy’s 6.3% is good for third place, ahead of Nikki Haley (4.8%), Christie (4.2%), and Mike Pence and Tim Scott (each with 3.3%).

Gov. Ron DeSantis received mixed reviews for his performance in the GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Several observers said none of the candidates had an obvious breakthrough moment as they tried to siphon loyalty and attention from the frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, who didn't participate. Politico / Associated Press / New York Times / Yahoo News / ABC News / PBS

“Post-debate poll shows Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis winning” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

“Poll suggests Trump’s failure to debate Wednesday could hurt him” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

Trump holds a commanding lead over the rest of the 2024 Republican presidential field in Iowa, and a more than 2-to-1 lead over DeSantis, with about five months to Caucus Day, the Des Moines Register reports. 

“Jacksonville isn’t DeSantis’ town anymore” via A.G. Gancarski of Jax Today — It was a good run while it lasted (depending on your perspective) but it feels like we’ve seen Peak DeSantis here in Jacksonville. Katie Wiles, Lenny Curry’s comms director, has a senior role in Trump’s national campaign, and former Chief Administrative Officer Brian Hughes is running Trump’s Florida operation. The issue locally looks like it does nationally: After years of self-serving and transactional relationships, he’s burned more people than he’s kept loyal. What’s clear is that DeSantis has taken his eye off Jacksonville. like the rest of the state and put it on the White House.

Mucarsel-Powell to Challenge Scott - Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell said Tuesday she'll seek the nomination to run against incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott. Mucarsel-Powell, who came to the U.S. from Ecuador as a kid, had been pursued by some Democrats to take on Scott, a former governor, and several Democratic party leaders had said they would support her. NBC News

State House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell, D-Tampa, said she won't challenge Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott for his Florida Senate seat. Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell said Tuesday she'll take on Scott in the Senate race. Former congressional candidate Phil Ehr has also launched a campaign, and former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson has opened a campaign account. Florida Politics / NBC News

Florida House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell has decided to not run against Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the Legislature, NBC News reports. 

Florida Democrats hired Kristellys Estanga to be their new voter registration director. Estanga has 15 years of experience in campaigns, organizing and advocacy. Politico Playbook