Legislative Update - January 19, 2024

On Tuesday, voters elected Democrat Tom Keen over Republican Erika Booth in a critical Special Election to fill the only vacancy in the House. Keen, an aerospace entrepreneur, will now represent House District 35, the seat vacated by Fred Hawkins, a St. Cloud Republican, who was recently hired as South Florida State College President.

Hawkins won the district in 2022 by 10 percentage points. But two years before that, voters in the district favored Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election by 5 points.  Keen won the Special Election by 51.3%.

Keen was officially sworn into office on Thursday.  He arrives in Tallahassee more than a week into the Legislative Session. That could severely affect the role he may plan in crafting legislation during their first stint in Tallahassee, but in the long-term, a victory could mean an extended tenure and outsized influence for a redshirt freshman.

The election of Keen did not have an enormous impact on the balance of power in the House, where Republicans already hold a supermajority with 84 seats. But the race could set the tone during the first presidential election year in decades when Florida isn’t widely considered the nation’s most valuable swing state.

Legislative Issues …

DeSantis aims to slice state budget by $4.6 billion. Here’s how he would do it. - Gov. Ron DeSantis is proposing more than $4.6 billion in cuts from the state’s $119 billion budget while continuing to provide billions in popular tax cuts and putting more into the state’s rainy day fund. The slashing starts with more than $1 billion to healthcare services, largely because of federal Medicaid money that has gone away with the end of the pandemic state of emergency. And the cuts continue as other one-time funds dry up, usually projects backed by federal grant programs that have been discontinued. [Source: Orlando Sentinel]

Revenue projections get bump ahead of new state budget - State economists on Tuesday increased general-revenue projections by about $2.18 billion for the current fiscal year and next year, giving a boost to lawmakers as they put together a new budget. But more than $700 million of that increased revenue has already been allocated for things such as hurricane assistance and home-hardening programs. Also, a long-range forecast projects mostly moderate annual revenue growth --- 1.6 percent to 2.9 percent --- after the current fiscal year ends June 30. That could mean hard decisions as lawmakers push priorities with big price tags. [Source: News Service of Florida]

“Senate approves $800 million health care package” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel — The Florida Senate unanimously approved Thursday an $800 million plan to increase access to medical care by training and hiring more doctors, nurses and other medical professionals. The Live Healthy Act, a priority of Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, includes millions of dollars in tuition assistance for medical, nursing and dental students, loans to build clinics, and creating a statewide health screening portal. It was pushed through quickly in the early days of the Session. “This is the most comprehensive, impactful and creative health care bill I have ever seen,” said Sen. Gayle Harrell, who has served 22 years in the Legislature and chaired various Health Care Committees.

“‘Bittersweet’: House passes bill defining antisemitism in Florida Statutes with 3 ‘no’ votes” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — As hateful acts against Jewish people climb to “unprecedented” levels, a bill establishing a broadly applying definition for antisemitism in Florida passed on the House floor. All but three lawmakers supported it. The measure (HB 187), which pends approval in the Senate, would define antisemitism in state statutes as “a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews” and rhetorical and manifestations “directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals, their property, community institutions and religious facilities.” HB 187 lists many examples of antisemitic rhetoric, including “dehumanizing” stereotypes that Jews hold disproportionate institutional power and secretly control the world economy, Holocaust denial and double standards when criticizing Israel, the world’s only Jewish-majority country.

Florida’s Senate passed a sweeping health care bill. What would it do? The Florida Senate unanimously approved Thursday an $800 million plan to increase access to medical care by training and hiring more doctors, nurses and other medical professionals. The Live Healthy Act, a priority of Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, R-Naples, includes millions of dollars in tuition assistance for medical, nursing and dental students, loans to build clinics and creating a statewide health screening portal. It was pushed through quickly in the early days of the session. More from the Tampa Bay Times and the Orlando Sentinel.

“Ban on social media use by minors ready for debate on House floor” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Legislation that would bar most Florida children from having social media accounts is headed to the House floor. The House Judiciary Committee advanced the bill (HB 1), a priority of House Speaker Paul Renner. But unlike a prior Committee stop, the legislation saw outspoken opposition, and the bill moved forward on a 17-5 vote. The legislation requires social media platforms to verify users' ages and prohibit anyone under 16 from opening an account. It also mandates deleting existing accounts for minors. Rep. Tyler Sirois said it’s essential to establish standards on what services minors use online when none exist today.

“Bill easing defamation lawsuits against journalists, misleading AI image creators advances in House” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Legislation designed to weaken decades-old legal protections for journalists and news outlets is again advancing amid arguments that it will have a “chilling effect” on efforts to hold the powerful accountable. House Civil Justice Subcommittee members voted 12-4 for a measure (HB 757) that would lower the legal bar in defamation lawsuits by shifting the burden of proof from the plaintiff to the defendant. That’s appropriate given how little faith there is today in media to get the story right, argued Rep. Alex Andrade, the bill’s sponsor. “The issue right now is trust in the media is at an all-time low,” he said. “Media is not engaging in sufficient self-regulation.”

Business community and advocates clash on child labor legislation; what’s best for the kids? - Within two weeks of the state’s 2024 legislative session, a clash has erupted between Florida’s powerful business community and 100 groups who are opposing rollbacks on child labor laws, with families, teens and education caught in between the skirmish. Just last week, lawmakers in the House pushed to allow 16- and 17-year olds to work more than 30 hours a week during the school year and allow for fewer mandatory work breaks. On Wednesday in the Senate, lawmakers had provided a bill with exemptions allowing minors as young as 16 to perform commercial and residential roofing work. [Source: Florida Phoenix]

AIF poll: Inflation and property insurance are the top issues for 2024 voters - Combating inflation and solving the property insurance crisis are the top issues that will drive Floridians to the ballot box in November according to new polling commissioned by the Associated Industries of Florida.

The pro-business group surveyed 988 likely general election voters and found that 23% were most concerned about the rising cost of living. Property insurance followed at 21%, a statistical tie. In a similar vein, 10% of those polled pointed to the rising cost of housing as their primary motivation to vote.

Combating illegal immigration (14%) and abortion rights (10%) were the only other issues to break double digits in the AIF poll.

Florida voters say “eight is enough” for County Commissioners, according to a recent statewide poll.

RMG Research surveyed 537 likely voters and found broad bipartisan support for placing term limits on their County Commissioner. Overall, 76% of voters were in favor, including 76% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats.

The poll also found that Floridians, by a margin of 82% to 15%, favor an eight-year term limit for Commissioners over a 12-year limit. The poll comes as lawmakers have filed bills that would institute such a cap.

Rep. Michelle Salzman, a Pensacola Republican, filed legislation (HB 57) that would prohibit County Commissioners who had already served eight years from running for re-election. Sen. Blaise Ingoglia is carrying a similar bill (SB 438) in the upper chamber.

Legislation that would designate the American flamingo as the official state bird of Florida has a leg to stand on. The bill (SB 918), brought by Miami Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud, passed the Senate Governmental Oversight and Accountability Committee Tuesday on a 3-2 vote.It has two more committee stops. The mockingbird has been the designated state bird since 1927, but it's also the state bird for four other states. An identical measure (HB 753) in the House has yet to be introduced in committee. Boca Raton Democrat Sen. Tina Polsky, who voted against the proposal in committee, is sponsoring a proposal (SB 162) that would designate the Florida scrub-jay as the official state bird.

Business …

Florida gas prices reach lowest average of the new year - Florida gasoline prices are on the decline, hitting the lowest daily average since Dec. 30. Prices were 8 cents lower than last week and dropped the state average to $3.08 per gallon. Mark Jenkins, spokesperson for AAA-The Auto Club Group, said Florida prices are continuing to bounce above and below the $3 mark. "This week, prices are below $3 in various cities throughout the state. Only time will tell if that trend continues," Jenkins said. More from Florida Today.

Cost of living in 10 of Florida's major cities, ranked cheapest to most expensive - Florida is the fastest-growing state in the U.S. and popular with retirees — it can also be quite expensive. To find out how some of the biggest cities in the popular Sunshine State stack up, Business Insider looked at The Council for Community and Economic Research's Cost of Living Index for different urban areas in the US. [Source: Business Observer]

Moving to Florida might not be the tax play it's cracked up to be - unless you're loaded - Income taxes, or the lack of them, are just one component of the state- and local-tax toll, a new report observes Florida, Texas and Tennessee have become hot real-estate markets in recent years, in part because they offer the allure of low taxes and cheap living costs. But a new analysis of how much state and local taxes cost rich and poor residents in those states throws cold water on the assumption that moving to such states is a tax-smart move. More from Morningstar and Marketwatch.

2024 Legislature: Floridians barely getting by - Every hour Florida gains an additional $4.48 million in net income as wealthy people from the Northeast, Midwest and even California arrive, the Internal Revenue Service reports. For the most part, Florida is one big boomtown. But the flip side of the state’s golden era of growth has become millions of Florida households struggling to get by even though they have full-time jobs that once would have secured them a comfortable, middle-class life here [Source: Florida Trend]

Campaigns and elections …

DeSantis Second in Iowa Caucus - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second in the Iowa Republican caucuses to former President Donald Trump in a test of the governor's viability that was marred by low turnout because of frigid temperatures. With 96% of the votes counted, Trump had 51% of the vote, more than DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley combined. DeSantis got just over 21% of the vote, edging out Haley who came in with 19%. The primary season is just getting started, which will keep the governor away from Tallahassee much of the time as lawmakers conduct their annual legislative session. DeSantis is planning to attend a campaign event today in Greenville, S.C., followed by a town hall in Claremont, N.H. Tuesday night. Tampa Bay Times / Orlando Sentinel / Miami Herald / USA Today / Washington Post / New York Times / Politico

“Ron DeSantis takes second place” via Fox News — The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that DeSantis will take second place in the Iowa Caucuses. DeSantis will trail Trump by a significant margin, but coming in second may give his campaign a much-needed boost. Haley will come third. She will look to regain support in New Hampshire. Ramaswamy comes fourth. Because Iowa awards delegates proportionately, all of the top four candidates will receive delegates. “They threw everything at Ron DeSantis. They couldn’t kill him. He is not only still standing, but he’s now earned his ticket out of Iowa. This is going to be a long battle ahead, but that is what this campaign is built for. The stakes are too high for this nation, and we will not back down,” a senior DeSantis campaign official told Fox News Digital.

Ron DeSantis regrets anti-media strategy: ‘I should have gone on everything’” via Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO — “I came in not really doing as much media,” DeSantis said. “I should have just been blanketing. I should have gone on all the corporate shows. I should have gone on everything.” His admission was an unusual moment of self-reflection for the Governor, who frequently derides the mainstream media as biased against him. But DeSantis is struggling to keep his presidential campaign alive after placing second in Iowa, roughly 30 points behind former Trump. He’s set to reach only single digits in New Hampshire, should the polls bear out, and is focusing his strategy on trying to make inroads in South Carolina, even though most polls show him trailing Trump and Nikki Haley.

“Ahead of Caucus, Nikki Fried warns Iowans about DeSantis, Trump” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses, Fried swiped at two Florida men seeking delegates. Fried served as Florida Agriculture Commissioner during DeSantis’ first term as Governor. She also campaigned with Biden against Trump. She dished on both DeSantis and Trump as both rally support in the Hawkeye State. “Take it from a Floridian — our country can’t afford another four years of Donald Trump, but Ron DeSantis isn’t the answer either,” she said. “A Trump or DeSantis presidency would be an absolute disaster for our pockets and our freedoms. They’ve already failed Florida — don’t give them a chance to fail America too.”

DeSantis gains ground in New Hampshire, closes gap to 44 points” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — DeSantis is headed to a distant third-place finish in New Hampshire, a place he was once competitive in polls. But the new survey shows reasons for guarded optimism, in that his numbers finally stopped falling. DeSantis’ 6% is 1 point better than what he had in Wednesday’s polling. Trump is well ahead, with 50% support. Meanwhile, Haley has 36% and will need a crossover turnout from independents and Democrats to be competitive on Tuesday. During a radio interview Thursday, DeSantis suggested he wasn’t that invested in how the Granite State ultimately goes.

“DeSantis campaign alleges ‘election interference’ as media calls Iowa early” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — As expected, Trump is headed to victory and taking at least a plurality of Iowa delegates, with more than 50% of the vote and early polls suggesting that result would hold. The Associated Press and others called the race, vexing DeSantis’ spokesperson, Andrew Romeo, and others from the Governor’s army of communicators. “Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump, and this is the most egregious example yet,” Romeo posted to social media, then sent out to the media mailing list.

—“Marco Rubio joins Rick Scott in endorsing Trump over Ron DeSantis for President” via Mark Skoneki of the Orlando Sentinel

—"DeSantis discounts Rubio endorsement of Trump” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”DeSantis ready for ‘long, scrappy campaign’ past Iowa” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

“DeSantis won’t get any help from Nevada’s Governor, who is now endorsing Trump” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — “We need President Trump’s decisive leadership back in Washington, D.C. President Trump oversaw record economic success, implemented strong foreign policy, and ensured our law enforcement officers are treated with the respect they deserve,” said Gov. Joe Lombardo. Lombardo’s endorsement comes less than a day after Trump claimed DeSantis wasn’t even running in Nevada’s Feb. 8 contest, an allegation called “fake news” by DeSantis’ campaign.

“Trump keeps lead over Joe Biden in head-to-head matchup” via Matt Holt of The Messenger — The poll, conducted online Jan. 16-17 among 1,045 registered voters, found Trump led Biden, 46%-42%. Twelve percent were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points. With 291 days until the general election, Trump leads Biden by 1.3 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. The last Messenger/Harris Poll conducted in late November and early December found Trump led Biden, 47%-40%. Biden and Trump, for the most part, have their bases behind them. Eighty-six percent of Republicans backed Trump while 84% of Democrats backed Biden. However, Trump led among Independent voters, 46%-35%, while 20% were undecided. Men backed Trump, 56%-38%, while women supported Biden, 46%-36%.

Rick Roth running for Palm Beach County Senate seat — West Palm Beach Republican Roth filed to run in Senate District 26 this week. Democratic Sen. Lori Berman, who currently represents the Palm Beach County-based district, cannot run again due to term limits. Lake Clarke Shores Democratic Rep. David Silvers also opened an account to seek the Senate seat. Both Roth and Silvers are term-limited out of the House.