Legislative Update - June 7, 2024

June 1 began the 2024 Hurricane Season and the Governor is traveling the state reminding people to take advantage of sales tax holiday on hurricane preparedness items. The sales tax holiday will end on June 14. The legislature is still in possession of the budget and is expected to send it to the Governor soon. He has line-item veto power, and it will be interesting to see what makes it and what gets axed. The state's 2024-25 fiscal year begins on July 1.

“Poll: 1 in 4 Floridians don’t prepare for hurricane season, would ignore evacuation warning” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Nearly a quarter of Florida residents don’t make any advanced preparations for hurricane season, and even more would disregard warnings to evacuate, a new survey found. Polling by AAA — The Auto Club Group found that 23% of people living in Florida aren’t planning ahead and assembling nonperishable food, water, and useful materials in case a storm strikes their area. Of those who would evacuate, nearly two-thirds (64%) said they would only do so if the approaching tempest was a Category 3 or stronger.

Governor ...

DeSantis says budget decisions coming soon -  With the state’s 2024-2025 fiscal year starting July 1, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday he will “bring (the budget) in for landing very soon.” During an event in Fort Myers, DeSantis said many lawmakers aren’t “going to be happy with everything,” as his office considers items that he could veto in the $117.46 billion budget, which the Legislature passed March 8. DeSantis said the plan will include a surplus “if things were to take a turn for the worse” and will reduce debt and offer tax breaks. More from News Service of Florida.

“DeSantis says Donald Trump can still vote in Florida despite felony conviction” via Kierra Frazier of POLITICO — DeSantis says he’ll make sure Trump can vote in his home state this November despite his felony convictions. DeSantis said he disputes the assessment of some experts who say that Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts would make him ineligible to cast a ballot in the state. But, in any case, the Governor said he would ensure the state Clemency Board cleared the way for his former rival for the Republican presidential nomination to vote back home. “Given the absurd nature of the New York prosecution of Trump, this would be an easy case to qualify for restoration of rights per the Florida Clemency Board, which I Chair,” he said on X.

DeSantis: If Trump Weren't Eligible to Vote in Florida, He'd Push to Make Him Eligible -  Florida law defers to other states' laws on whether convicted felons can vote in Florida when they're convicted in another state. That means Donald Trump would be allowed to vote in Florida as long as he's not jailed in New York after being convicted in a hush money case. But Gov. Ron DeSantis said on X that if there were any question about Trump's ability to vote, he'd step in and make sure Trump is eligible with a move to restore his right to vote. "Given the absurd nature of the New York prosecution of Trump, this would be an easy case to qualify for restoration of rights per the Florida Clemency Board, which I chair," DeSantis wrote. USA Today Network

Courts ...

Coming Scotus Opinion Could Affect Homeless Laws Across Country -  A U.S. Supreme Court decision expected this month could determine whether Florida and other states with laws effectively criminalizing being homeless by banning sleeping outside in public are violating the U.S. Constitution's Eighth Amendment prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed legislation (HB 1365) in March that will ban homeless people from sleeping in parks and on sidewalks and in other public spaces in Florida, though it doesn't go into effect until this coming Oct. 1. It will join more than a dozen states where there are laws making it a crime to "camp" or sleep in public spaces. Such laws have been found unconstitutional – violations of the Eighth Amendment – in the nine Western states under the jurisdiction of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals under a ruling in a case called Martin v. Boise. The issue has come up again in Grants Pass, Ore., where plaintiffs challenged local camping and sleeping bans and a federal court found that they were inconsistent with the findings in the Boise case. But the Oregon case, City of Grants Pass v. Johnson, was taken on appeal by the U.S. Supreme Court, which could decide the question of the legality of such bans more broadly. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case in April. Florida's pending new law has a wrinkle that may give it some room to avoid having its statute thrown out – the lower court ruling in the Grants Pass case said the city couldn't enforce such "no sleeping" ordinances when the homeless people had no other shelter access. Florida's new law will allow local cities and counties to set up designated sites for the homeless to camp, with services such as running water and restrooms. CBS News / SCOTUSblog: City of Grants Pass v. Johnson / LobbyTools Real Estate and Housing Policy Brief

Business ...

AIF Poll: Voters Favor GOP But Property Insurance Remains Top Priority -  A new poll from the Associated Industries of Florida reveals that voters in the state prefer generic Republican candidates over Democrats by 47% to 43%, with 10% of the electorate undecided. Independent voters in Florida, however, favor Democrats over Republicans by 43% to 36%. Republicans lead in voter registration. The data shows that economic issues are the primary concern among Florida voters, with property insurance costs (26%) and inflation (21%) being the most critical, followed by illegal immigration (13%) and housing costs (10%). Republicans are favored over Democrats on most issues, including the economy (44%-23%), reducing inflation (35%-25%), crime (46%-16%), education (38%-31%), and protecting personal freedoms (45%-37%). But 44% of voters feel that neither party is effectively addressing the top issue of property insurance costs in the state. "The average Floridian is really feeling the effects of the insurance crisis and higher prices," said AIF Vice President of Political Operations Jeremy Sheftel. "With hurricane season officially underway, it will be worth monitoring to see how voters will respond as the season progresses." The recent poll surveyed 800 voters between May 28-30 via landline and digital methods, and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. AIF Press Release / Florida Politics

Chamber Releases 'How They Voted' Report:  The Florida Chamber of Commerce released its comprehensive look at the bills it considered a priority and the issues it was tracking during the spring legislative session. In its 2024 How They Voted report, the Chamber highlights bills that passed and that were defeated and "unfinished business." The Chamber also ties issues to committee and floor votes by individual lawmakers to link the actions taken during the session on business-related legislation to its Legislative Report Card that was released last month. The Chamber said its average score among Florida's 160 lawmakers was 87%. Members of the Senate got a slightly higher grade, scoring an 89% average score on Chamber priorities compared to the House at 86%. Florida Chamber How They Voted Report / Florida Politics

GR Collections Beat Expectations in April -  Incoming general revenue exceeded projections by $411.4 million in April, totaling $4.1 billion for the month, according to the Office of Economic and Demographic Research. Sales tax collections, the largest portion of the state's revenue, surpassed estimates by $282 million, reaching $2.96 billion. Corporate income taxes also exceeded expectations by $66.7 million, totaling $294.6 million. April was the tenth consecutive month of higher-than-expected revenue, with the fiscal year-to-date total now $2.36 billion above the forecast. The strength in tax collections is mainly attributed to ongoing economic recovery and rising consumer spending, supported by a steady unemployment rate of 2.6% and a rebound in tourism. Despite the positive trend, state economists warn that external factors like inflation and potential economic downturns could affect future revenue. EDR Monthly Report / EDR Detailed Report / The Capitolist

“UF survey: Consumer sentiment in May mixed as economy fluctuates” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — Consumer confidence fell across Florida in May, according to a new monthly consumer sentiment survey published by the University of Florida (UF) Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Consumer sentiment dropped slightly last month, falling from a revised figure of 73.3 in April to 73.1 in May. “The decline in consumer sentiment was driven by Floridians’ perceptions of current economic conditions. Although inflation is not far above the Fed’s 2% target since peaking at 9.1% in 2022, progress against inflation has slowed down, demanding Floridians to make further adjustments to budgets and spending plans,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The latest figure also represents some turbulence in consumer confidence in Florida’s economy. April’s numbers were up from March, and that month saw an increase over February.

Florida has 7th best economy in country, Wallet Hub study finds -  Florida has the seventh-best economy in the country, according to a new analysis from Wallet Hub. The Sunshine State’s economy is so large that if it were a country, it would rank in the top 20 in the world. Other states with strong economies include Washington State, California and Texas. Florida ranks fourth in economic activity and second in economic health but only ranks 31st for innovation potential. [Source: News 4 Jax]

Florida income is among top 20 in nation -  Personal finance website WalletHub released its report on the states where people have the highest income, and the Sunshine State made the top 20. WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across three key metrics: the average annual income of the top 5%, the average for the bottom 20%, and the median for all residents of each state adjusted for cost of living. The median yearly income in the U.S. is around $74,600. More from the Tampa Bay Business Journal and the Florida Times-Union.

“Florida ends May with slight increase in new jobless claims” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — First-time weekly unemployment insurance claims saw an increase for the final week of May, according to new figures released by the U.S. Department of Labor. There were 6,920 initial unemployment benefit claims filed in the Sunshine State for the week ending June 1, using seasonally unadjusted data. That’s up from the week ending May 25, when there were 6,276 initial jobless claims in Florida. On the national front, the seasonally unadjusted numbers headed in a different direction than Florida. Across the U.S., there were 195,430 new unemployment insurance benefit claims for the week ending June 1, a slight decrease from the week ending May 25.

Gas Prices Drop, But Remain Higher Than Last Year:  Florida gas prices have decreased for the past ten days, with the state average falling by 11 cents per gallon, according to AAA – the Auto Club Group. On Sunday, the average price was $3.45 per gallon, five cents lower than a week ago but six cents higher than the same time last year. Over the past two weeks, U.S. crude oil prices dropped by 4%, and gasoline futures fell by 16 cents. OPEC and its allies recently agreed to extend oil production cuts into 2025 to support oil prices, but the move was anticipated and hadn't changed the price of oil as of Sunday night. "The summer travel season is beginning with gasoline prices that are 20 cents less than the highest price this year," said AAA Public Relations Manager Mark Jenkins. The West Palm Beach-Boca Raton area remains the most expensive for refueling, while the Crestview-Fort Walton Beach region offers the current cheapest gas prices in the state. AAA Press Release

Property Values Spike in Central Florida:  New property appraisers' reports show continued increases in land values in parts of central Florida. Rising property values and extensive new construction have boosted county tax rolls over the last year in the region. Orlando Sentinel

Rental market in Florida could be settling down. Will housing get cheaper?  In recent years, Florida has been flooded by people moving from other states and countries, causing demand — and thus housing costs — to rise drastically. Combined with huge bouts of inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, it’s been a tough time for many. But now that the number of people coming into Florida is slowing down, it could be a good sign for those struggling to pay rent. More from Click Orlando.

Duke, TECO Seek Rate Bumps -  The Florida Public Service Commission will consider rate increases this month proposed by Duke Energy and Tampa Electric Co., or TECO. Meanwhile, the senior citizen advocacy group AARP is launching a campaign called "Get amp'd up, to keep rates down." Duke Energy wants to raise rates by $818 million over three years for its nearly two million Florida customers, although it says other cost reductions will lower customer bills. TECO is proposing a three-year rate hike of over $460 million for its 840,000 customers starting in 2025, which may increase bills, though the company says they'd still be among the lowest in the state. AARP says its opposition is not to the hikes themselves but to the size of the increases, advocating for a reduction in the proposed rates and limiting profitability, highlighting how the base rate increases could disproportionately impact seniors on fixed incomes already suffering from inflation. TECO argues that it previously lowered rates and the hike is an adjustment, while Duke claims the increase will help reduce future power outages. State hearings on the proposals are scheduled from June 10 through June 18 in Tampa, Tallahassee, Inverness and Largo. Florida Politics / Tampa Bay Times

Heat Danger High:  Florida ranked second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May, according to a new Heat Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sun Sentinel

Energy ...

“A Republican pollster asked Florida voters about energy. The results surprised him” via Emily L. Mahoney of the Tampa Bay Times — Floridians of both political parties are overwhelmingly concerned about the cost of energy in the state and Florida’s heavy reliance on natural gas as a source of electricity, according to a poll by a Republican strategy firm. It also found that environmental issues will factor into voters’ decisions in the 2024 Election. The poll was commissioned by the Environmental Defense Fund, which advocates for environmental causes including renewable energy. To conduct the poll, the group hired Spry Strategies, a Tennessee firm whose clients have included Gov. Ron DeSantis, U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and the Republican Party of Florida, according to the company’s website.

Campaigns & Elections ...

“GOP registration edge crosses 900,000-voter mark” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Florida’s red hue continues to deepen. The state’s Division of Elections just updated its tally of active voters, and it’s more bad news for Democrats. As of April 30, Republicans had 906,551 more registered voters than Democrats in the Sunshine State. It’s the GOP’s biggest lead since it overtook Democrats for the first time in November 2021. Of Florida’s 13.47 million active voters, 5.24 million were registered with the Republican Party of Florida compared to 4.34 million registered as Florida Democratic Party members.

“Shock Fox News poll shows 4-point spread between Donald Trump, Joe Biden” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — New polling conducted earlier this month by Fox News points to a surprisingly close presidential race in a state widely seen as a safe GOP hold in November. The survey showed Trump with 50% support, just four points ahead of Biden in a state where Republicans expect to have a million more registrants than the Democratic Party by November. The two are tied with female voters, in the first Sunshine State polling since the former President’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a hush money trial in New York last month. Trump does have 52% support with male voters, per Fox.

“1 in 10 Republicans less likely to vote for Trump after guilty verdict, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds” via Jason Lange of Reuters — Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Trump following his felony conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Friday. The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate's conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said they were more likely to support Trump, who has claimed the charges against him are politically motivated and has vowed to appeal.

“Trump's potential VP picks just received vetting documents. Here's who got the papers.” via Fin Gómez and Jacob Rosen of CBS News — Trump's search for a Vice President is formally underway, and there's been an increased focus on four candidates, although his shortlist is not yet complete, and the vetting process is continuing. Sen. Marco Rubio, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance have received vetting materials and are the candidates most frequently discussed internally by Trump and his campaign, a source familiar with the process said, but added that the former President may still choose another candidate. A source close to one contender downplayed the report, and a senior Trump official said of any narrowing of the shortlist, “Anyone who tells you they know who, how or when is a liar unless it's Donald J. Trump.”

What to know about Florida’s Amendment 1, the school board ballot question:  For over 20 years Florida school board races have been non-partisan, but voters will have a chance this election season to once again place party labels on school board candidates. Placed on the November ballot by state lawmakers, Amendment 1 aims to make school board races across the state partisan, specifically at a time where schools have become a political battleground in Florida. Those who oppose Amendment 1 fear that bringing back party labels to local school board elections will further politicize education in Florida.

What to know about Florida’s Amendment 2, the hunting and fishing ballot question:  This election season, Florida voters will have a chance to solidify the right to hunt and fish in the state’s constitution by voting in favor of Amendment 2. Placed on the state ballot by Florida lawmakers, Amendment 2 aims to establish a constitutional right to hunt and fish, which its proponents believe is a necessity to protect the outdoor recreation industry and give power back to Florida residents. But critics of the proposal fear that it could cause more harm than good.

Political Committee Behind Recreational Marijuana Amendment Announces New Ad -  Smart & Safe Florida , the political committee advocating for Amendment 3 to legalize recreational marijuana for adults over 21 and grant licensed medical marijuana treatment centers the authority to produce and distribute marijuana products in Florida, released a new ad called "Fact." The new TV ad highlights the benefits of a regulated marijuana market, emphasizing safety for consumers, revenue for education and law enforcement, and undercutting the illicit drug trade. "Access to regulated adult-use marijuana would help prevent illicit cartel-trafficked marijuana from making its way into Florida," reads a media release announcing the ad. "Without regulation, these products can be laced with dangerous materials including heavy metals, pesticides, glass, heroin, fentanyl and other illegal substances." While medical marijuana has been legal in the state since 2016, recreational use has not. The industry-backed initiative, funded by Trulieve and other cannabis companies, would take effect six months after the November election if 60% of Florida voters approve the amendment. 'Fact' Ad / Smart & Safe Florida Press Release / Florida Politics

Court Calls for Updated Financial Statement Linked to Abortion Amendment -  A Leon County circuit judge ruled the financial impact statement accompanying a proposed constitutional amendment on abortion rights must be revised. Judge John Cooper found the current statement, prepared by the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research's Financial Impact Estimating Conference, to be "inaccurate, ambiguous, misleading, unclear, and confusing." The measure, known as Amendment 4, would expand abortion rights in the state, allowing the procedure only up to about 24 weeks – when doctors say a fetus is "viable" outside the womb. The financial impact statement, which estimates the effects of proposals on government revenues and the state budget, was issued before two key Florida Supreme Court rulings on April 1. Justices upheld a 15 week abortion ban ( HB 5) that triggered a subsequent more stringent law restricting abortions to those during the first six weeks of pregnancy (SB 300), and on the same day approved the ballot language for the abortion rights amendment. Plaintiffs, including the political committee behind the abortion rights measure called Floridians Protecting Freedom, argued the financial statement contains outdated information about the legality of abortion and fails to reflect the current legal status. "I'm not telling them what analysis to perform," said Cooper. "I'm just saying it needs to be revised, consistent with the circumstances on the ground today, which is the six-week law we all know is the law as I speak now." But Cooper dismissed a part of the lawsuit that sought to change how financial impact statements are presented on ballots, stating he lacked the authority to mandate such changes. The constitutional amendment would need to be ratified by 60% of voters in the upcoming November election. Yes on 4 Press Release / ACLU Release / EDR: Financial Impact Statement / EDR: Summary of Financial Information Statement / News Service Florida 

Gruters Gears Up for CFO Bid  - Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, has filed paperwork to run in 2026 for state chief financial officer as incumbent CFO Jimmy Patronis faces term limits. Gruters, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, opened a campaign account for the Cabinet race last week, according to the state Division of Elections website. He is the first prominent candidate to file paperwork for a 2026 Cabinet campaign. Gruters, a certified public accountant, has been widely expected to run for CFO. In March, former President Donald Trump said he would support a Gruters campaign. “Joe was on the ‘Trump Train’ before it even left the station and, if he decides to run, he will have my Complete and Total Endorsement,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Gruters was first elected to the Senate in 2018 after serving two years in the House.

Rival Accuses Thompson of Living Outside of District -  Former Central Florida Democrat Sen. Randolph Bracy has accused incumbent Sen. Geraldine Thompson, D-Orlando, of not residing in the district she represents as the two prepare to face off in a primary for a Senate seat. Thompson, elected to state Senate District 15 in west Orange County in 2022, has claimed homestead exemptions for a home in Windermere, outside of her district. Thompson says she has been living at her daughter's home in Ocoee, within District 15 boundaries, since October 2021, to help care for her granddaughters. She asserts that while her husband resides at their Windermere home, she splits her time between the two residences. Thompson's voter registration lists the Ocoee address, though some of her official documents still list the Windermere address. Bracy argues this violates Florida law requiring legislators to live in the district they represent and that a homestead exemption must be for a primary residence. Bracy, who is running against Thompson in the Democratic primary, said he may take legal action if Thompson qualifies for the ballot by June 14. Orlando Sentinel 

First Transgender Candidate Endorsed by Ruth's List Florida -  Ruth's List Florida has endorsed Ashley Brundage in the race for House District 65, making her the first transgender candidate the organization has supported. If elected, Brundage, a Tampa Democrat, would become the first transgender woman to hold office in the Legislature. Ruth's List focuses on electing pro-abortion rights Democratic women. During the 2020 elections, voters elected eight transgender, nonbinary or gender-nonconforming candidates to serve in six state Legislatures around the country, and one other transgender legislator was already a delegate in Virginia. Brundage, founder, president, and CEO of Empowering Differences, is one of two Democrats running in HD 65, facing Nathan Albert Kuipers in the primary. The winner will challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Karen Gonzalez Pittman in the general election. House District 65, based in Hillsborough County, includes South Tampa and Town 'N' Country. The GOP has a voter registration advantage with nearly 38%, compared to less than 31% for Democrats, and 29% nonpartisan voters. Florida Politics

By the Numbers: Bluest Counties - The state Division of Elections last week posted a report that showed the Florida Democratic Party trailing the Republican Party of Florida by more than 900,000 registered voters as of April 30. Here were counties with the highest percentages of registered Democrats: