Legislative Update - August 9, 2024

On Monday, Hurricane Debby made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. Governor DeSantis amended his executive order and declared a state of emergency for 61 of the 67 counties in Florida. Florida’s west coast experienced heavy rain, flooding and strong wind gust.

Primary Elections will be held on Tuesday, August 20. Early voting begins on August 10 and some counties began early voting this week.

Hurricane …

Debby Makes Landfall in Big Bend as Cat 1 Hurricane - Hurricane Debby made landfall Monday morning in the Big Bend area of Florida north of Cedar Key, according to the National Hurricane Center. Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday activated the state's Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, as well as the Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard ahead of the storm's projected landfall. He also amended an executive order, declaring a state of emergency for 61 of the state's 67 counties. Coastal areas of the state near the Gulf of Mexico were on Sunday getting heavy rain and  storm surge, which could lead to flooding in the coming days. President Joe Biden approved Florida's emergency declaration, enabling federal assistance to support state, tribal, and local response efforts, including authorizing the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA to coordinate relief efforts. "I'd urge all Floridians to be cognizant of the fact that we are going to have a hurricane hit the state, probably a Category 1, but it could be a little bit more powerful than that," said the governor in a briefing on Sunday. Executive Order / DeSantis Press Release / USA Today / Tallahassee Democrat / Tampa Bay Times / Orlando Sentinel / The Weather Channel / CNN / National Hurricane Center

Debby Brings Heavy Rainfall, Flooding to Parts of Florida - The Steinhatchee River near Cross City rose nearly 8 feet as Hurricane Debby came ashore Monday along the Big Bend and state officials said residents in the area could expect heavy flooding for possibly up to 10 days. At least four deaths were attributed to the storm, including in storm-related crashes in Dixie and Hillsborough counties, and a child killed by a falling tree in Levy County. Several counties were starting early voting on Monday for the Aug. 20 primary election – but officials canceled that voting because of the weather in some of those counties. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of Florida members of Congress called on the White House to expand the amount of federal assistance available to help local governments with response and recovery. Debby was a Category 1 hurricane when it made landfall in Taylor County, but quickly weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across the northern part of the state past Jacksonville and up the Atlantic coast of Georgia. Weather Channel / Tallahassee Democrat / USA Today Network / Sun Sentinel / Axios

Hurricane forecast changes as we enter peak season - Colorado State University reduced the number of named storms it is predicting this hurricane season following a weekslong lull between Tropical Storm Chris and Hurricane Debby. The revised forecast, which is still calling for a hyperactive season, was released Tuesday, Aug. 6, as part of CSU's regularly scheduled updates. More from the Palm Beach Post and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Business …

Major Stock Indexes Plummeted on Monday: Global markets plunged amid fears of a slowing U.S. economy on Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.1%, the Dow Jones falling 1,009 points, and the Nasdaq sliding 3.8%. Japan's Nikkei 225 saw a 12.4% drop, its worst since 1987. The sell-off followed a U.S. jobs report showing a significant hiring slowdown, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve's high interest rates are stifling economic growth. South Korea's Kospi index fell 8.8%, and bitcoin dropped below $54,000. Big Tech stocks, including Apple and Nvidia, also tumbled, exacerbating market losses. Even gold, typically considered a safe investment during uncertain times, declined by about 1%. Geopolitical tensions related to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and oil prices, along with the upcoming U.S. elections added to the uncertainty. Many economists have raised the possibility of a coming recession, though the U.S. economy was still growing at a strong 2.8% annual pace in the quarter that ended July 1. Associated Press / Reuters / Wall Street Journal

Florida's wages continue to grow despite national decrease

A new ADP report shows that wage growth has been rising in Florida over the past year, and the median salary continues to increase for workers who have stayed in their roles for a year or more. Florida ranked No. 40 among the 50 states in median pay last month. Massachusetts had the highest level at $74,100, which is more than 40% higher than Florida. [Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal]

Unemployment claims in Florida declined last week - New jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell to 6,833 in the week ending July 20, down from 7,955 the week before, the Labor Department said. U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 235,000 last week, down 10,000 claims from 245,000 the week prior on a seasonally adjusted basis. [Source: Lakeland Ledger]

AAA: Fla Gas Prices Up While Oil Costs Decrease: Florida gas prices rose by just over six cents last week, reaching an average of $3.46 per gallon on Sunday, according to AAA – the auto club group. "Although gas prices rose last week, fundamentals are moving lower," said AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins. "Crude oil and gasoline futures prices finished the week sharply lower than the week before, which should enable gas prices to decline." U.S. crude oil prices have decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping by approximately $10 per barrel, or 13%. On Friday, oil closed at $73.52 per barrel, marking the lowest daily closing price since June 4. "Futures prices reportedly fell after the latest jobs report triggered concerns of an economic slowdown," added Jenkins. The West Palm Beach area remains the most expensive for refueling at $3.61 per gallon, while Pensacola offers the current cheapest gas prices in the state at $3.11 a gallon. AAA Press Release

South Florida Home Sales Continue to Cool: Home and condo sales slowed in July in South Florida, dropping below levels reported a year ago, according to The "Elliman Report." Palm Beach County saw a 16.1% year-over-year decline in signed contracts, with 265 closings compared to 316 in July 2023. The report follows a similar trend in June, with the area seeing 273 closings that month. Broward County had a 13% drop, with 395 closings down from 454 in July 2023 and a decline from June's 417 sales. Miami-Dade County, however, saw a 2.9% increase in home sale contracts, totaling 811 in July compared to 788 the previous year and up from June's 784 homes sold. But inventory surged across all three counties. Broward saw a 43.6% rise in new listings, Miami-Dade a 39.1% increase, and Palm Beach a 36.3% jump compared to July 2023. Additionally, all three counties reported declines in condominium sales for July year-over-year. Florida Politics

 Miami Struggles with Traffic Congestion that Growth Has Worsened - Miami has boomed in the last half decade with much of Florida's population growth of the pandemic and post-pandemic settling in and around the South Florida city, which was the 10th fastest-growing large city in the United States in 2023. But that growth has come with costs, possibly biggest among them increased traffic. That growth in traffic may eventually stifle the growth in real estate values that has accompanied the growth in population. "Schools and traffic are the two most challenging topics for the growth of real estate values and for the growth of Miami in general," says Fredrik Eklund, a former star of reality show Million Dollar Listing who now helps affluent buyers find Miami homes. Eklund is among the thousands of newcomers in the city who have found themselves not just in one of the fastest growing cities, but in one of the most congested. Miami has seen worsening traffic while authorities struggle to come up with mass-transit solutions in a city where 80% of residents have a driver's license and 90% say they commute by car. Traffic delays increased 18% between 2019 and 2023 in Miami, in part because higher real estate prices in the city drove more people to move to the suburbs – and drive into the city. "We grew without transit," said Miami-Dade Commissioner Eileen Higgins. "We really are an unplanned community that now needs to retrofit transit." Insurance Journal

Over 300K people have flocked to Central Florida. Where did they come from?

The U.S. Census Bureau has released its most recent data for migration flows by county, which spans from 2016-2020. During this time, over 350,000 people moved to Central Florida.

What's Driving Higher Insurance Claims? People Moving to Stormy States - For home insurers, 2023 was the worst year for losses this century. A new report shines a light on one reason losses from catastrophes have grown in recent years despite changes in laws around litigation and other efforts to reduce damages: people keep moving to the states that are most vulnerable to catastrophes. California, Florida and Texas all are among the states especially prone to severe weather events, and those three were among the states that grew the most in the decade between 2010 and 2020, according to the Best's Market Segment Report, "Migration to CAT-Prone Areas Adds to US Homeowners Insurers' Performance Volatility." In addition to those three states, Georgia, North Carolina and Washington also saw growth over that decade, with those six states accounting for more than half of the population growth over the 10-year period ending in 2020. All six states are prone to claims-causing losses. "Population trends show residents increasingly moving toward regions that are more prone to hurricanes, severe convective storms or even wildfires," said David Blades, associate director, Industry Research and Analytics, AM Best. Insurance Journal

Florida's combined sales tax rate is mid-pack compared to other states - According to data from a national tax policy group, Florida's combined sales tax rate ranks 24th. The Washington, D.C.-based Tax Foundation ranked Florida as the 24th highest combined state/local sales tax rate at 7%. The state sales tax is 6% and the average county levy is 1.02%. Groceries and prescription medicines are exempt from sales tax. The Sunshine State is one of 38 states that allows local sales taxes and 45 out of the state's 67 counties add one. More from The Center Square.

Contractor Rolls Out Waste-to-Energy Facility Plan for Miami-Dade - A consulting firm working with Miami-Dade County has released preliminary design plans for a new waste-to-energy facility that could turn 4,000 tons of trash a day into electricity and alternative fuels. The yet-to-be sited $1.5 billion facility would replace the county's previous garbage incinerator in Doral that burned down last year. The consulting firm on the project said the county could add carbon capture technology to make the new facility "net zero" to further reduce climate-changing emissions. Still to be decided is where the facility could be sited, with several cities in Miami-Dade expressing a strong interest in not having it nearby because of complaints about smell, water and air quality at the previous facility that had been operated by Covanta Energy. A contractor to operate the new facility is also still undecided. Miami Herald

“Miami-Dade plans to build the biggest waste-to-energy facility in the country” via Ashley Miznazi of the Miami Herald – The aging incinerator that burned down last year in Doral processed half of Miami-Dade’s trash, forcing the county to ship the garbage some 100 miles north. If all goes to plan, it could be replaced by what is billed as the largest waste-to-energy facility ever built in the United States. The controversial question about where it will go, however, remains undecided. AtkinsRéalis, the county’s consulting firm for the project, unveiled preliminary designs for a facility that would handle 50% more waste than the one burned beyond repair in February 2023. That older generation waste-to-energy operation burned nearly 100 million tons of trash a year but also drew constant complaints from neighbors about foul smells.

How much do Florida’s undocumented immigrants pay in taxes? Numbers may surprise you - Undocumented immigrants in Florida paid $1.8 billion in state and local taxes in 2022, according to a recent report analyzing what people who generally cannot legally work in the United States because of their immigration status contribute to the country’s public coffers. More from the Miami Herald.

COVID …

COVID Cases Up, Vaccinations Down: As COVID-19 cases rise in Florida, vaccination rates have significantly declined, with only 400,000 receiving a booster this year compared to 15 million in 2021. Health experts are concerned about the low vaccination rate, particularly as hospitalizations increase and the highly transmissible Omicron subvariants spread. Epidemiologists warn that the public's reduced concern about COVID and the lower perceived severity of the virus contribute to the declining vaccination rates, posing a greater risk to vulnerable populations, such as the immunocompromised and the elderly. While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends annual vaccines for most people and semiannual shots for those over 65 or with immune deficiencies, the Florida Department of Health only advises seniors or those in a high-risk group to get vaccinated. Central Florida Public Media

Elections and campaigns …

Fla Republican Coalition Backs Harris for President - A group of long-time Republicans who left the party because of Donald Trump's movement are backing Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign for the presidency in a move that is being promoted by her team. The effort includes former state Sen. Paula Dockery, who served in the Legislature as a Republican but changed her registration to Democrat in 2017, Rich Logis, founder of PerfectOurUnion, and Greg Wilson, a former GOP Staff Director in the U.S. House of Representatives. They're part of a group aiming "to earn the vote of Republicans who believe in putting country over party, and know that every American deserves a commander-in-chief who will put the best interests of the American people above their own," according to Harris' National Director of Republican Outreach Austin Weatherford. A University of North Florida poll shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 42%, and a Redfield and Wilton survey indicates an eight-point gap, with Trump at 47% and Harris at 39% in the Sunshine State. Additionally, there are nearly a million more Republican voters than Democrats in Florida, according to recent voter registration data. Sun Sentinel / Florida Politics

JMI Releases 2024 Amendment Guide: The James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank, has published its 2024 Amendment Guide for Florida's six constitutional amendments on the November ballot. The guide provides ballot language, a brief description of each amendment, and the pros and cons of voting for each one. It also offers details about each amendment's origin (Legislature or citizen initiative), whether the issue needs a ballot measure or could be addressed legislatively, implications of "yes" or "no" votes, and a summary of each proposed amendment. Despite JMI's conservative stance, the guide remains neutral, offering no voting recommendations. The guide also explains how constitutional amendments reach the ballot, the approval process, and the procedure for repealing an amendment. In Florida, amendments can be placed on the ballot by the state Legislature with 60% support or through a citizen petition process. To pass, amendments need 60% plus one voter approval. Repealing an amendment requires another ballot measure. Florida law also requires that proposed amendments focus on a single subject, preventing bundled amendments. JMI 2024 Amendment Guide / JMI Press Release / Florida Politics

Marijuana Amendment Gets Contribution Boost - Recent campaign finance reports show the political committee backing the constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana for adults over 21 in Florida received a financial boost of over $116,000 in the last week of July. Smart & Safe Florida, the group behind Amendment 3, has raised nearly $67 million over the past two years, with medical marijuana dispensary Trulieve contributing around $60 million to the campaign. The latest contributions include $100,000 from Insa, a company operating medical marijuana dispensaries in Florida, and over $9,000 worth of T-shirts donated by Verano Holdings. While the group currently has about $12.5 million in its campaign account after spending millions on ads and gathering signatures, a new political committee opposing the amendment called Keep Florida Clean and led by Gov. Ron DeSantis' Chief of Staff James Uthmeier received a $12 million donation from billionaire Ken Griffin, who runs a hedge fund company. Previously, the committee had only raised $200. The ballot measure, which is opposed by DeSantis, the Florida Sheriffs Association, and the Florida Police Chiefs Association, would take effect six months after the November election if 60% of statewide voters approve the amendment. A University of North Florida poll indicates that 64% of likely voters in Florida support the amendment. Additionally, Sarasota Republican Sen. Joe Gruters, who is also the former Chair of the Republican Party of Florida, has recently come out in support of the initiative. Florida Politics

Florida recreational marijuana initiative has raised $66M - Proponents of ballot initiatives that would legalize recreational marijuana and enshrine abortion rights in the Florida constitution have raised millions. The two initiatives are among six that will appear on the Nov. 5 ballot and will require a 60% vote to earn a place in the state's constitution. [Source: The Center Square]

Abortion Amendment Group Claps Back At State Over New Financial Impact Statement - Floridians Protecting Freedom, the political committee backing the proposed constitutional amendment expanding access to abortion, is challenging a contentious financial impact statement that will accompany the measure on the November ballot. The group argues that the statement, which warns about publicly funded abortions and litigation costs, is misleading and should be nullified by the Florida Supreme Court. "The question before this Court is simple," reads the committee's Wednesday court filing. "Does the Financial Impact Estimating Conference (FIEC) have the authority to perform a second analysis of a proposed constitutional amendment and adopt a new financial impact statement on the order of the Senate President and House Speaker? The answer is unequivocally no." The original financial impact statement was issued before a Supreme Court ruling put the state's current six-week abortion ban in place. Although a lower court judge had ruled in favor of the group to draft a new one incorporating the impacts of the law, legislative leaders went ahead and directed economists to draft a new statement and appointed members to the panel to represent their interests. Backers of the ballot initiative argue that the new statement is inaccurate and intended to mislead voters, which now includes questions of whether the state might be on the hook for certain costs if the ballot measure passes. Attorney General Ashley Moody defends the revised statement as clear and within the panel's authority. The amendment would need to be ratified by 60% of Florida voters in November to take effect. Floridians Protecting Freedom, Inc., et al. v. Kathleen C. Passidomo, et al. / Florida Politics / News Service Florida

 Trump Backs Shoar in Bid to Fill Hutson Seat: Former President Donald Trump endorsed former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, one of three Republicans seeking to replace term-limited GOP Sen. Travis Hutson of Palm Coast in state Senate District 7. Also seeking the Republican nomination are the state House Appropriations Committee chairman, Rep. Tom Leek, R-Ormond Beach, and professional golfer and former professional wrestler Gerry James. "David Shoar, who is 100% MAGA, and has been with us from the very beginning, has my Complete and Total Endorsement," Trump said on social media over the weekend. The winner of the GOP primary will face St. Augustine Democrat George Anthony "T" Hill II. Daytona Beach News-Journal

Primary Early Voting Starts: Early voting in primary elections began Monday in some Florida locations, including Miami-Dade, Orange and Hillsborough counties, and is slated to start in the coming days in other parts of the state. The primary ballot includes congressional and state legislative races, as well as local contests such as school boards and local commissions. Miami Herald / Tampa Bay Times / Central Florida Public Media