Legislative Update - July 11, 2025

Florida Republicans are going into 2026 with a significant advantage according to new polling by the Associated Industries of Florida’s Center for Political Strategy .

The poll, released during AIF’s Summer Policy and Political Retreat in Destin, shows the GOP with a sizable lead on a range of issues, most notably Israel, where Republicans are favored over Democrats by 31 points. That gap remains strong even among Independents, who give the GOP a 27-point edge.

A new analysis by Florida TaxWatch on the impact of tariffs on the Sunshine State economy concludes there could be a substantial hit to many industries and consumers. Automobile prices could increase by $6,000 - $7,000 and a new home $10,000.  

Governor …

"Democrats sue for access into ‘Alligator Alcatraz’; Governor’s Office calls their complaint ‘dumb’ " via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Five Democratic lawmakers have filed a lawsuit with the Florida Supreme Court, demanding access to the “Alligator Alcatraz” immigration facility after being physically blocked from conducting an unannounced inspection. Sens. Shevrin Jones and Carlos Guillermo Smith, along with Reps. Anna Eskamani, Angie Nixon, and Michele Rayner argue that the denial was a “blatantly unconstitutional” move by DeSantis’ administration to restrict the Legislature’s independent oversight authority. The lawsuit, filed on their behalf by fellow Democratic Rep. Ashley Gantt, seeks to force the state to allow them entry into the controversial detention center.

The U.S. military is sending 200 Marines to Florida to support ICE operations " via Churchill Ndonwie of the Miami Herald — The U.S. Northern Command announced that 200 U.S. Marines are being deployed to Florida to support President Donald Trump’s mass deportation efforts. The troops will not engage in law enforcement but will provide administrative and logistical support to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This mobilization coincides with the opening of "Alligator Alcatraz," Florida's new, controversial detention center in the Everglades, although it remains unconfirmed whether the Marines will be stationed there. This deployment is the "first wave" of support for ICE, with the Defense Secretary having approved up to 700 troops. The move is part of a broader federal strategy to utilize military resources to advance the administration's immigration agenda.

Legislative …

"Legislators say they don't get heads-up, explanation for Ron DeSantis vetoes of their items " via Dave Berman of Florida Today — DeSantis has abruptly slashed nearly $567 million from Florida's new budget, vetoing over 450 local projects with no specific explanation and catching top legislators by surprise. Even House Majority Leader Tyler Sirois learned of the cuts, which included millions for environmental projects and a school training hangar he sponsored, from a public list released hours after the budget was signed. The Governor’s office gave no specific reasons for the vetoes, stating only a broad goal of reducing overall spending to his initial target. Lawmakers, who had overwhelmingly approved the items, were left without advance notice or rationale and are already planning to resubmit their community projects during the next Legislative Session.

Business …

Florida TaxWatch: State consumers will see higher prices as a result of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs ” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — A new analysis by Florida TaxWatch on the impact of tariffs on the Sunshine State economy concludes there could be a substantial hit to many industries and consumers. The Potential Impacts of New Tariffs on Florida’s Economy report issued by the government watchdog group raises serious concerns about Trump’s plans for increasing trade tariffs. The report concludes that Florida consumers will not be able to avoid rising costs when tariffs are implemented. “As the cost of production goes up for almost all commodities, the burden of this increase will fall on Florida consumers. Higher construction costs can increase the price of a typical house built by Florida developers by $10,000. An increase in the cost of production in the automobile industry will lead to an increase in the price of a car, by at least $6,000-$7,000,” read the report

“Florida revenue tops projection ” via the News Service of Florida — Florida’s general-revenue tax collections beat expectations in May, with economists saying part of the gain was tied to people buying goods in anticipation of the effects of tariffs. The Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research on Monday released a report that said Florida collected about $4.56 billion in net general revenue in May, $84.5 million more than the economists forecast in March. “Slightly less than 82% of this gain came from sales tax as consumers began to prebuy goods in advance of the expected impact of tariffs,” the report said. The report came as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday told reporters that Trump would extend to Aug. 1 a pause on reciprocal tariffs that was set to end on Wednesday. The extension followed Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs that would be imposed on Japan and South Korea starting Aug. 1. State general revenue is closely watched because it plays a major role in funding education, health and prison programs.

By the Numbers: Where State Money Comes From - State general revenue plays a crucial role in funding schools, health programs and prisons. A new report shows Florida collected about $4.6 billion in general revenue in May. Here were the largest sources of that money:

— Sales taxes: $3.217 billion

— Insurance taxes: $419 million

— Corporate income taxes: $379.4 million

— Documentary stamp taxes: $155.3 million

— Earnings on investments: $121.8 million

— Corporate filing fees: $105.8 million

— Intangible taxes: $51 million

— Service charges: $49.5 million

— Highway safety fees: $40.3 million

— Counties’ Medicaid share: $30.9 million

Source: Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research

“Fewer Canadians are searching for homes in Florida, data shows ” via Abigail Hasebroock of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Living in Florida has long been enticing for Canadians, but a new analysis shows fewer of them are considering it as a destination. The number of Canadians seeking a home in Miami and Orlando decreased by about 30% in each region year over year in May, with Fort Lauderdale experiencing a 21% decline. And “fewer Canadians are searching for homes in the United States than they were at the start of 2025, before the U.S. instituted steep tariffs on Canada and relations between the two countries started suffering,” Redfin said. The number of Canadians searching for homes in the U.S. started to drop significantly in February, shortly after the Trump administration implemented 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Some real estate experts believe the overall suffering relationship between Canada and the U.S. may also be contributing to the decrease.

Immigration …

“Supreme Court won't let Florida enforce controversial immigration law ” via Maureen Groppe of USA Today — Florida can't enforce a controversial new law targeting undocumented immigrants entering Florida, the Supreme Court said on July 9 in rejecting an emergency appeal from the state. The decision leaves in place a lower court's pause to the law while it's being challenged. The law, which made it a felony for certain immigrants to enter Florida, was passed to help carry out Trump’s immigration policies. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier told the Supreme Court the law is needed to protect residents from "the deluge of illegal immigration." "If a state's police powers are powers at all, they allow a state to criminalize harms destructive to the community," he wrote in the appeal. Seventeen states told the Supreme Court they're backing Florida's position, as did the Trump administration.

Marijuana …

“Recreational pot petition for 2026 ballot passes 600K signatures ” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Supporters of legalizing recreational cannabis in Florida have taken a major step toward placing the issue back on the ballot, submitting more than 600,000 verified petition signatures for a proposed 2026 constitutional amendment. State records show that as of this week, the political committee Smart & Safe Florida has submitted 613,206 valid petition signatures. While the committee still needs to reach the 880,062-signature threshold to appear on the statewide ballot, it has already surpassed the minimum required to trigger mandatory review by the Florida Supreme Court and the Financial Impact Estimating Conference.

Campaigns & Elections …

Wilton Simpson still considering a run for Governor in 2026 ” via Javier Manjarres of The Floridian — Shortly before Trump arrived to open the now-famed "Alligator Alcatraz" federal detention center in Southwest Florida alongside Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, DeSantis and Attorney General James Uthmeier, Simpson hinted at a possibly challenge to U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds in the 2026 Republican gubernatorial Primary. In speaking to The Floridian reporter Liv Caputo, Simpson stated that he was focused on fulfilling his commitment as Agriculture Commissioner, but left his option to run for Governor open. Simpson said, "We'll see about that next year," as if he would run for Governor in 2026.

Rep. Toby Overdorf is throwing his hat in the ring for Senate District 31, aiming to succeed Sen. Gayle Harrell, who is term-limited in 2028.

The Palm City Republican is announcing his candidacy Monday, emphasizing his roots in the Treasure Coast and track record in the House, where he’s represented parts of Martin and St. Lucie counties since 2018.

“Federal judge blocks part of Florida law that restricts ballot initiatives ” via Dara Kam of the News Service of Florida — A federal judge has blocked a key part of a new law that imposed additional restrictions on the state’s ballot-initiative process, saying a ban on non-Florida residents and non-U.S. citizens collecting and delivering petitions “imposes a severe burden on political expression that the state has failed to justify.”